Disclaimer: This outlook is based on historical snow depth observations recorded at Spencer's Creek, Snowy Mountains NSW (1954–2025), combined with current climate driver indices. It is indicative only and may not be representative of all Australian alpine resorts. Individual resort conditions will vary based on local elevation, aspect, and snowmaking capability. This forecast should not be used as the sole basis for travel planning.
Produced 9 March 2026 · Updated every 2 weeks until season commencement
Australia's alpine ski season typically runs from the June long weekend through to early October, with resorts across the Snowy Mountains (Perisher, Thredbo, Charlotte Pass), Victoria's High Country (Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller), and smaller fields like Selwyn and Mt Baw Baw all dependent on natural snowfall supplemented by snowmaking. The season's quality hinges on a narrow window of cold, wet southerly weather — a combination that is strongly influenced by large-scale climate drivers including ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode.
This forecast is modelled exclusively on Spencer's Creek snow depth records at 1830 m elevation in the Snowy Mountains — the longest continuous alpine snow record in Australia. It is most applicable to high-elevation terrain in the Kosciuszko region. Lower-elevation resorts such as Mt Buller (1,707 m summit) or Mt Baw Baw (1,564 m) typically receive less snow and may diverge significantly from this outlook, particularly in marginal seasons. Snowmaking capacity at individual resorts also means on-piste conditions can differ substantially from natural depth indicators.
How the Forecast Works
The simulation draws on Spencer's Creek snow depth records dating back to 1954 — 71 years of continuous alpine observations managed by Snowy Hydro. This dataset captures the full range of Australian alpine variability, from the record-breaking depths of 1974–75 and 2010–11, to the meagre seasons of 1982 and 2019.
Rather than a single-number forecast, we use Monte Carlo simulation — running 100,000 probabilistic seasonal trajectories — to express the genuine uncertainty in seasonal forecasting. Each iteration draws from a log-normal distribution calibrated to the historical record, weighted by the current climate state.
Climate Scenario Weighting
The 2026 forecast is composed of four climate scenarios, each assigned a probability weight based on the current outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology:
- Neutral ENSO + neutral IOD (50%): The baseline scenario. Historically produces average seasons around 190 cm with wide variance.
- Weak El Niño + neutral IOD (25%): A moderate headwind. Historical mean around 172 cm.
- El Niño + positive IOD (15%): The risk scenario — historically associated with the leanest seasons, mean around 142 cm.
- Neutral ENSO + negative IOD (10%): The upside scenario. Mean around 225 cm historically.
Trend Correction
Australian alpine snowfall has been declining at approximately 5.5 cm per decade since the 1950s. This structural trend is applied as a correction to the forward-looking forecast, which is why the simulated median (174 cm) sits below the raw historical mean of 182 cm.
The P10–P90 forecast range for 2026 spans roughly 111 to 264 cm — a reminder that even with sophisticated modelling, Australian alpine seasons remain highly variable and difficult to predict with precision months in advance.
What to Watch
The next key climate update will be the Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO and IOD outlook in late March, which will clarify whether the neutral ENSO state holds or tips toward a weak El Niño. The SAM phase in June will also be important — negative SAM drives the cold, southerly weather patterns that deposit snow on the ranges. We will update this outlook every two weeks as new forecasts are released.
About This Analysis
This outlook is produced by Aeris Spatial as part of our ongoing work in climate data visualisation and spatial analysis — capabilities we apply to professional client projects in planning, development, agriculture, and infrastructure. Our core business is GIS consulting and geospatial mapping across NSW, and this analysis is built on the same data infrastructure that powers AerisCast ⛅, our free location-based weather tool. For bespoke climate analysis or custom data tools, see our Climate & Data Solutions service.
If you have a project that could benefit from data visualisation, GIS processing, or custom mapping — get in touch.